Ski Santa Fe Winter Forecast

After making the very most of the past two challenging snowfall seasons at Ski Santa Fe (shout out to our MVP snowmaking team for making lemonade out of lemons!), we can’t help but feel hyped about the emerging "super El Niño" that’s been all over the news. 

But we waited for the winter forecast from our trusted partners at OpenSnow before getting too excited. 

The official forecast is in, and it's a good one: above-normal snowfall is favored for Ski Santa Fe for the 2026-2027 season. Check out OpenSnow’s more detailed forecast below.

Confidence remains high that a very strong, or "super", El Niño will prevail through the winter of 2026-2027, and if anything, confidence has only grown in this being among the strongest on record. 

To craft this winter forecast for Ski Santa Fe, the OpenSnow team identified 9 winters over the past 50 years with similarly strong-to-super El Niño—plus other key oceanic and atmospheric signals in common—and applied a weighted comparison methodology. 

The top 4 comparison winters used in this forecast were 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and 2023-24. The 5 other comparison winters were 1972-73, 1986-87, 1991-92, 1994-95, and 2009-10.

In all but 1 of the 9 winters above with conditions similar to the upcoming 2026-2027 season, the southern Sangre de Cristos and Ski Santa Fe had well-above-average snowfall. 

The 2015-2016 winter was the one outlier. The rest of the evidence clearly favors a wetter/snowier winter for New Mexico, hence OpenSnow’s official forecast.

OpenSnow 2026-2027 Winter Forecast Snow

The most recent comparable strong El Niño season was 2023-2024, which was a banner winter for Ski Santa Fe, ending with a well-above-normal snowpack.

2023-2024 Snowpack

Using our methodology for the upper-atmospheric weather pattern (high-pressure ridges and low-pressure troughs), we find a trough-dominant signal favoring New Mexico and the Southwest, with the dark arrows indicating the storm tracks that tend to dominate during strong El Niño winters. 

OpenSnow 2026-2027 Storm Track Forecast

These favored storm track patterns bode well for snowfall at Ski Santa Fe.

Temperature – We see equal chances for above- or below-normal temperatures, largely because an active southern storm track favored during strong El Niño winters brings more cloud cover than usual. 

Historically, New Mexico has had a cooler-than-normal signal during strong El Niño winters, but recent El Niño winters have been warmer, which lowers confidence and leads to an "equal chances" designation for temperatures.

OpenSnow 2026-2027 Winter Forecast Temperatures

Seasonality – November-December and March-April are favored for above-normal snowfall; January-February are neutral (equal chances above or below normal).

While there is a lot to be hopeful about with the emerging super El Niño winter, remember that winter outlooks contain an inherent degree of uncertainty because many atmospheric factors aren't predictable months or even weeks in advance. 

When planning ski trips around storms, 15-day snow and weather forecasts, available with an OpenSnow subscription, are always your best bet over seasonal outlooks.

All this being said, history is our friend when we look at predictive signals for the upcoming 2026-2027 winter. 

We very much like our chances for favorable snowfall at Ski Santa Fe this season.